The AUD/USD rates are unstable in 2021. Since August, we have observed a strong upward movement that has gone beyond the usual price correction. The resistance line has strongly shifted upwards, and the support line was lost somewhere far from the current rates. This happened amid a weakening of the USD, although the Australian dollar cannot be called a strong currency either. Demand for risky assets is unstable and fell in the second half of 2021.
This week the Australian dollar was under pressure again, following the results of the RBA meeting. Contrary to investors' expectations, the regulator was very soft in assessing the perspectives for changing the rate, and also estimated inflation at a level lower than it should be, despite the growth of the producer price index for the sixth month in a row. As for other macroeconomic reports, they were generally disappointing: the number of construction permits issued decreased by 4.3% in September, and the business activity index from the Ai group was only 50.4 pips in October.
The focus of investors' attention remains the Fed and the probability of a reduction in the program of buying securities amid a record growth in stock markets. Investors also expect the Fed to signal a rate hike earlier than previously planned. Technical analysis tools are multidirectional, but we suppose the most likely scenario is a further strengthening of the dollar.
