The rates continue within the downtrend in favor of the USD. At the same time, we could see signs of an upward trend formation since October 2018, when after reaching a minimum of 0.6433 USD, the rates pushed up. The upward movement was made possible by the weakening of the dollar amid political problems in the United States related with the shutdown of the government, and ending with signs of slowing economic growth. In addition, the FED softened their aggressive monetary policy, in connection with which the probability of an increase in the rate in the first half of 2019 decreased.
This week, investors continued to receive alarming signals on the US economy: the non-manufacturing PMI index fell from 58 to 56.7 points. The number of applications for unemployment fell at a slower pace than expected on the market. The situation with the prospects of the government's work has not changed: at the moment it remains unclear whether the issue of the government's financing will be resolved after February 15. Nevertheless, the US dollar is strengthening this week, mainly due to even more serious reasons for the weakening of other currencies.
The New Zealand dollar fell significantly in price, after negative reports on the labor market. The unemployment rate in the fourth quarter rose to 4.3% against the market expectations of 4.1. The change in the employment rate was only 0.1%. Thus, there is no sign of improvement of the economic situation in New Zealand. Thus, the RBNZ is likely to leave the rate at the current level, if not revised downward, taking into account all the risks of slowing the world economy and the risk of a trade conflict between China and the United States.
At the moment the most effective seem to be the deals to SELL with a prediction of a further decline in the NZD and following the meeting of the RBNZ next week. In general, we can expect a decrease to the levels of 0.665 - 0.669 USD, after which quotes can return to growth. Oscillators such as the MACD and the Stochastic are multidirectional.
