The uptrend continues and does not slow down. At the same time, we can see on the chart that the support line has been repeatedly tested and in the future we can expect a weakening of the trend, taking into account the drop in the value of the dollar against major currencies. It should be noted that the Swedish Krona is also not very likely to take advantage of the weakening USD and turn the trend in their favor. Therefore, we suppose that in the near future, the trend will continue, but will be less intense. Volatility at the same time will grow.
She situation in the EU is not conducive to strengthening the currencies of countries in the region. We can see an economic downturn everywhere, as well as a decline in business activity and a slowdown in inflation. In particular, in Sweden itself there is a decline in inflation to 1.8%, which does not meet the expectations of investors, given that this is the lowest level for the last 15 months. In this situation, it is expected that the ECB will soften monetary policy by introducing new programs to stimulate the economy; the rate, which currently stands at 0.0%, may be revised downward.
This week the dollar lost in price, following the speech by the FED head, Jerome Powell, who confirmed his willingness to reduce the rate in the near future. A number of officials expressed similar views. Despite the unemployment data published this week, which turned out to be positive, and despite the consumer price index, which exceeded investors' expectations, reaching the highest level in the last 5 months, the probability of a rate reduction is growing, and probably at the end of the month the Fed will finally reduce the rate by 25 points.
We suppose that the price correction is not yet complete and in the short term the deals to SELL will be the most effective. However, in the long term the uptrend will continue, so the deals on the trend will remain relevant anyway. Most technical analysis tools, including the Stochastic oscillator, signal the effectiveness of the deals to SELL in the near future.
