Market Overview, January 11

The economic calendar is empty today, yielding the foreground to political developments.

Economic News
11 ene 2021

The clock is ticking for President Trump. Now only is his term coming to an end in nine days, but there is now a strong push to remove him from office before then.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set an ultimatum for Vice President Mike Pence. The latter will have until tomorrow to decide whether to invoke the 25th Amendment, which will make Trump unfit for duty, making Pence the effective president for the remaining week or so. However, Pence previously stated he would make no such move.

If the Amendment is not invoked, House Democrats will begin a second impeachment trial against Trump. This will make the President the first one in United States history to have been impeached twice, and in just one term at that.

However, for the impeachment to succeed, there will need to be Republican rebels voting to support it. Out of the 50 Republican Senators, at least 16 will have to side with the Democrats for the impeachment to succeed. Even though last week’s riots turned many against Trump, it is unclear if they will go as far as to support an impeachment.

In other news, this week investors appear to be adjusting their expectations for 2021. In particular, based on the latest data, some are beginning to think that there will be less stimulus from the new US government than anticipated earlier. This strengthened the dollar slightly.

Bitcoin, which broke above $40,000 for the first time ever last week, has retreated to $34,855 and may move lower as the USD rises.

Sentiment is also hurt by the coronavirus pandemic, which is proving more resilient. While at the end of 2020 investors were confident that the vaccines will help eradicate the threat fast, Covid-19 continues to spread freely. Hospitals in the US and the UK are near their limits, as are health workers. In addition, the new highly contagious variant of Covid has made its way to the United States. Moreover, another dangerous mutation also appeared in South Africa, though it is different from the UK one.

The number of Covid-19 cases worldwide has surpassed 90 million. The United States has had almost 23 million infections, followed by India with 10.4 million, and Brazil with 8.1 million.

The coronavirus is also making a comeback in China, where the government imposed new lockdowns on the affected provinces.

Anna Sneider

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Despite a siege on the Capitol in the US, Congress certified the election results.

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