The downward trend continues in favor of the Canadian currency for the sixth month in a row, and everything indicates that the CAD remains the most attractive commodity currency for investors. Even the fall in oil prices in August will not change the situation: the Canadian economy is quite satisfied with oil prices around $70, and this is confirmed by the latest macroeconomic reports. As it became known this week, the trade balance returned to the green zone in June due to high prices for oil and petroleum products. A surplus was reached for the first time since 2008. This result can be considered phenomenal because, according to the forecasts, a balance deficit of 680 million CAD was expected, but in fact a surplus of 3.23 billion was obtained. This further strengthens investors' expectations from the Bank of Canada for their tightening of monetary policy.
The Australian dollar remains under pressure due to an increase in the number of coronavirus cases. The largest cities in Australia remain on lockdown, which puts pressure on the Australian economy. RBA head Phillip Lowe revealed a positive forecast for the economy and surprised investors with the decision to leave the program of reducing bond purchases unchanged. However, this did not help strengthen the AUD. The Australian currency is declining against major currencies in the presence of a large number of negative factors. Macroeconomic reports from China also did not support the AUD: business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector decreased by 1 pip in June and amounted to only 50.3 pips, formally remaining in the green zone.
Today, the Canadian dollar remains in the focus of investors' attention: a report on unemployment is being published, which, according to the forecasts, should decrease by 0.4% compared to last month. At the moment, the long-term forecasts for the Canadian dollar are extremely positive, and oil prices are recovering and returning to the $70 mark. The Stochastic oscillator, like many other technical analysis tools, tends in favor of the Canadian dollar. Therefore, today we are confidently opening the deals to SELL.
