The EUR paired with the AUD is still able to maintain an uptrend, but if nothing changes in the eurozone, then in a month we will be fixing a change of the trend. The euro continues to fall in price under the influence of the economic downturn in the eurozone, as well as due to the situation with Brexit. The ECB in these conditions does not dare change the soft monetary policy, which a year ago they strongly promised to revise.
This week the euro proved to be the weakest currency among all. The published macroeconomic reports showed a continuation of the general economic downturn tendency in the economies of the EU countries and in the eurozone as a whole. Germany's GDP grew by 0% in the fourth quarter of 2018, Britain's GDP - by 0.2%, and in the eurozone as a whole the GDP grew by the same 0.2%. This rate of economic growth is the lowest in the last 4 years and it could not go unnoticed on the market, not to mention the most rapid decline in industrial production in the eurozone over the past 9 years, registered in January. At the moment the euro has little incentive to grow. Aggravating the situation are the political problems in the EU, arising periodically in many countries from the eurozone.
The Australian dollar received support this week and could count on growth against all currencies. Amid rising demand for risky assets, the AUD rose in price, given the growing likelihood of a trade deal between the US and China and Donald Trump's softening position on this issue. Released this week, China's trade balance data exceeded investors' expectations. The surplus rose to 39.16 billion CNY, which is 15% higher than expected on the market. At the same time, exports grew by 9%, while imports fell by 1.5%, which creates a favorable basis for further growth of the trade surplus.
In this situation, the most optimal would be the deals to sell, against the trend. The decline in the rates may be significant - at least to the level of 1.57 AUD, and in the long term may fall down right to the support line. Technical indicators also tend to the deals to sell. The stochastic oscillator tends down to the oversold zone, while the MACD is neutral.
