As of today, there is a little over three weeks until the formal date of the US Presidential elections - November 3. In fact, many Americans have already started voting via mail-in ballots - those who are abroad, or even domestically, people with movement disabilities or wary of the coronavirus and thus eager to avoid the overcrowded voting stations.
There have also been two debates so far. First, Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off two weeks ago, at a time when the President was not aware he had been infected with the coronavirus by one of his aides. That event could hardly be called a proper debate, as it mostly featured Trump speaking over and interrupting whatever Biden was trying to say, to the point where the former Vice President had to resort to appeals such as “Will you shut up, man?” in order to try to get a word in. Though that meeting was not necessarily a winning moment for Biden, it was somewhat of a loss for Trump, who came across as an angry and impatient old man who refuses to adhere to facts.
This week the running mates of the two candidates had their own debate, which went significantly better. Senator Kamala Harris, Biden’s candidate for VP, and current Vice President Mike Pence both proved their political skills during the debate, as each tried to focus on their own agenda. The debate was also more civilized, even though Pence interrupted Harris on several occasions, eliciting some very meaningful glances from the Senator that certainly won her new fans.
There was a second debate between Trump and Biden scheduled for October 15, but due to the President’s illness, the Debate Commission announced it will be in an online format. In turn, Donald Trump stated that he will not participate in an online debate where they can easily “cut him off” when he is speaking. Biden, however, is preparing for the event even if he has to go by himself. He stands to win more ground against Trump if the current president misses this media opportunity.
In fact, all of the latest polls show that Biden has extended his lead against Trump in the last couple of weeks. Currently, Biden leads by about 10 points in the national polls; he is also reportedly in the lead in several swing states, which are often the deciding factor.
With that in mind, the financial markets are beginning to prepare for a possible Biden win in the elections. Considering Biden’s campaign goals and promises, we can expect him to issue more fiscal stimulus as soon as he steps into office to help support the economy through the coronavirus crisis. There will likely be more government spending on other public issues as well. Thus, the USD will most likely weaken under a Biden presidency, at least in the beginning.
In addition, it is expected that the stock markets will stabilize as Biden will most probably ease the US relationship with China and end the trade war, which will be good for US businesses and may help in the recovery from the pandemic.
