We are nearing the end of 2020 and what was previously expected to be a short-term crisis - the coronavirus pandemic - still poses a major threat around the globe. All attempts to halt the second wave of the pandemic have failed and now it is time for a tightening of the safety regulations, which will further impact the global economy.
Europe is currently dealing with its biggest Covid-19 outbreak, with numbers surpassing even the peak of the first wave. Some have tried to dismiss the high numbers by attributing them to the increased testing capacity of most countries, but hospitalizations and deaths are going up again, indicating that it is not so simple.
Just yesterday France reported close to 48,000 new Covid-19 cases. Spain did 23,580, Italy had 26,831, and Germany confirmed 18,732 new cases. Other economic powerhouses in the European Union are also being more heavily affected by Covid-19 than earlier in 2020. The Netherlands had over 10,000 new cases yesterday, while Belgium (which has a total population of around 11.5 million) confirmed over 21,000 coronavirus infections on Thursday. EU members in Central and Eastern Europe are also experiencing record daily increases.
The EU-wide deterioration of the pandemic indicates that it is time for the bloc to take the harshest measures against the virus, even though governments wanted to avoid them. France, Germany, Spain, and Italy all had curfews and partial lockdowns over the past few weeks, but these failed to contain the coronavirus. Now France and Germany have announced complete national lockdowns from November, following EU members Ireland and the Czech Republic, who implemented the lockdowns earlier.
It is highly likely that other heavily affected countries like Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium will also consider national lockdowns.
The move towards strict measures almost certainly means that the European economy is up for another blow due to the decreased activity during the lockdowns. Economists are now talking about a double-dip recession, where a secondary downward turn in economic growth forms below the level of the first drop.
A similar fate awaits the United Kingdom as well. The UK had over 23,000 new cases yesterday and has been experiencing daily increases of over 20,000 Covid-19 cases for the past ten days. It also experimented with curfews and local lockdowns but may need to move towards a national lockdown to contain the outbreak.
Of all heavily affected regions, the United States presents arguably the most bizarre case. The US alone accounts for over 9 million Covid-19 cases, which is over 20% of the total global infections. Yet President Trump has refused to implement new lockdowns after closing the country for less than a month in early spring. His administration has repeatedly downplayed the dangers of the coronavirus and sometimes speaks of the pandemic in the past tense, as if it is over.
In fact, the US never saw a lull in infections. There were early peaks around 30,000 in April, prompting the first lockdowns. Then, the number of daily infections barely dropped to 20,000 per day in May and June before peaking between 70,000 and 80,000 in July. This in turn was followed by two months of oscillation between 30,000 and 50,000, until finally cases started peaking again in October. Yesterday the United States saw its highest daily number of new infections ever - over 91,000.
According to health experts, lockdowns and better social distancing measures are highly necessary in the United States, but the President is extremely unlikely to implement them. As a result, Americans have to hope for a Biden win in next week’s election, as the Democratic candidate has demonstrated a better willingness to listen to the experts and the hard facts. If Trump wins the election, there is no telling how much worse the coronavirus situation can get in the United States.
