Technical Analysis of XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

This week, the price of gold (XAU/USD) shows a steady consolidation as the market evaluates recent economic data and global geopolitical developments.

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21 aug. 2024

1. Chart Pattern: Head and Shoulders

• The chart clearly displays a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.

• Left Shoulder: Formed around mid-July, with a peak lower than the head.

• Head: The highest peak in the chart, formed around July 18th-20th.

• Right Shoulder: Formed after the head, with a peak similar to the left shoulder, but lower than the head.

The neckline (the line connecting the lows of the two shoulders) is slightly upward-sloping, which adds to the pattern's complexity but remains a valid indicator.

2. Price Action

• The price broke below the neckline, which often signals a further decline. After the breakdown, the price briefly retested the neckline before continuing downward.

• Currently, the price seems to be hovering near a key support level around 2397.130.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: Around 2397.130, which aligns with the neckline of the pattern and a previous price congestion area.

• Resistance: Around 2450.000, where the right shoulder was formed. This level may act as resistance if the price attempts to bounce back.

4. MACD Indicator

• The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is showing negative values with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum.

• There is also divergence visible in the MACD, which typically suggests that the strength of the recent price movements is weakening.

5. Trendlines

• An upward trendline is visible, but the recent price action has violated this trendline, signaling potential further downside.

• The upward trend was consistent until the head was formed, after which the price struggled to maintain higher levels.

Conclusion:

• Bearish Outlook: The combination of the Head and Shoulders pattern, downward MACD, and the break of the upward trendline suggests a bearish outlook for XAUUSD in the near term.

• Watch for Retests: If the price moves back toward the neckline (around 2397.130) without surpassing it, it could present a selling opportunity.

Robert Thompson

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