USD/SEK remains one of the most stable pairs. The downtrend is losing its strength and as a result we get a flat trend, which is also stable and has held in the range of 8,1698-8,7713 SEK for six months. At the same time, the downtrend is still formally preserved: the resistance line is still directed down, despite shifting up in March during the price correction.
In May, the Swedish krona received a lot of growth incentives. First of all, support was received due to good macroeconomic reports in Sweden. Business activity is at its peak: the manufacturing business activity index amounted to 69.1 pips in April, which is a record, and in the services sector it reached 65.6 pips. This is the highest performance in the region, although the EU as a whole is also experiencing strong growth and economic recovery. Investors are also optimistic about the acceleration of vaccination rates in the EU, which should further improve the economic situation and leave the lockdown era behind.
The dollar, in turn, is under pressure after a new record in the trade deficit. The Fed's monetary policy remains unchanged - soft and stimulating, although a significant improvement in the unemployment situation, with a reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, supports the USD and may strengthen the value of the US currency today, with the publication of new data. According to the forecasts, the US economy is expected to have created 978K jobs in April. Therefore, today the dollar can really improve its position against most currencies, thanks to this data.
Despite the USD's potential for growth today with the publication of the unemployment reports, in the medium term we believe that the deals to sell are more effective. Most technical analysis indicators also recommend short deals. According to analysts' forecasts, the support line will be tested again and the movement towards it has already begun. The entry points can also be at the levels of 8.1698 and 8.7713.
