In September, we saw the formation of a downtrend, however, we, like most analysts, believed that the downward movement is limited and most likely, the rates will continue within the flat trend, which was formed in August, after the uptrend lost its intensity amid the return of investors to risky assets and the optimism in connection with the possible resolution of the trade conflict between China and the United States. Volatility, at the same time, gradually decreased, in the absence of panic sentiments, and the market became more predictable. The stability of the dollar, which is devoid of former incentives for growth allowed it to change in value, mainly due to macroeconomic reports.
This week, the USD was under pressure due to the publication of disappointing data on the real estate market. The number of durable goods orders also fell short of expectations. This increased investors' fears of a possible recession in the US economy, which will certainly motivate the FED to reduce the rate. Safe-haven assets have already received support this week, following the ECB meeting, as well as due to the uncertainty with Brexit. This way, Gold returned to the range of 1500+ by the end of the week, and can count on support in the future, given that next week the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of China will be published, and in the US, a Fed meeting will be held. On Tuesday, the market will receive data on the index of unfinished sales in the United States, which, judging by the already received data on the real estate market, will not meet the expectations of investors.
We believe that, at the moment, the best solution are the deals to Buy. In the short term, growth will be limited, but there is every reason to expect a recovery in prices to the level of 1510 dollars, after which prices may decline. Most technical analysis instruments also tend to the deals to Buy, although the Stochastic oscillator indicates that the overbought zone has been reached.
