Despite Thursday's wild plunge to a 20-year low of 0.9950, the EUR/USD is still unable to record a daily closing below the parity level. The technical indications are turning higher, which increases the likelihood of an upside reversal. The MACD's bearish action is waning, and the RSI has risen past the 30 level, indicating an oversold market.
Unless there is a rebound, the 1.0345 significant moment might be followed by immediate resistance from the 20-day SMA at 1.0300. Nevertheless, only a close above 1.0635 would be capable of determining the beginning of a potential uptrend. Higher still, the 40-day SMA and the medium-term declining trend line may also serve as downside barriers.
A crucial support level at 1.0000, where the price frequently stopped last week, may be achieved by moving lower instead. If this proves out to be a tolerable obstacle this time, the sell-off may continue until the 0.9950 bottom, when any violation will increase market pressure. In particular, the price may fall even deeper to test the August 2002-registered support level of 0.9600. The pair is still strongly bearish over the medium term as long as it maintains a movement below the trend line that is falling and, more significantly, below the 200-day SMA, which is also falling.
