The single most important report that the markets await today is the non-farming payrolls in the United States. Based on several weeks of record high initial jobless claims data, it is estimated that the payroll report will show that around 21 million people lost their jobs in the first month of lockdowns in the US.
Alongside the NFP, we also expect the official unemployment rate from the United States, which is expected to have climbed to the staggering 16% since the pandemic began. If either of these reports is worse than the forecasts, expect safe haven assets to receive a boost.
Despite some very aggressive comments from Donald Trump earlier this week about China’s role in the spread of the coronavirus, it seems that the US and China are both eager to avoid further conflicts. Trade representatives from both countries reassured the media today that the phase-1 agreement is on its way to implementation, which helped calm some of the fears about a renewed trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
If you recall, last year’s prolonged trade dispute between China and the United States had a strong negative impact on the stock markets. The news about the improvement in the relationship between the two countries is now helping stock markets recover.
Considering how heavily the global economy will be hit by the coronavirus pandemic, even the United States is not immune. Now analysts are beginning to forecast more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, even negative interest rates in 2021.
A quick update on the coronavirus: the total number of cases worldwide is approaching 4 million. Russia is still registering over 10,000 new cases each day. It is expected to overtake the United Kingdom by the beginning of next week and take the fourth spot behind the US, Spain, and Italy.
