The uptrend continues. However, being at the peak, the trend lost its intensity two months ago and transformed into a flat one. We still observe an upward momentum, but in fact, the AUD's value takes into account all perspectives for economic recovery and export potential to China. Further growth will require additional signals from the RBA or a real improvement in economic indicators. However, it's the opposite at the moment. This week's reports on the construction sector disappointed investors. The rates remain stable due to the fact that this week it's continued with a low volatility in connection with Thanksgiving Day in the United States. For this week, the AUD has held its positions amid the weakness of the USD, but also due to the fact that many took a wait and see attitude for next week, when the RBA meeting and the publication of Australia's GDP are expected.
In anticipation of a new stimulus from President-elect Joe Biden for the US economy, the dollar remains under pressure, losing 5.1% in November against the AUD and other major currencies. Macroeconomic reports disappointed investors and showed the need for incentives: unemployment is rising and the consumer confidence index is falling, despite the holiday period. Also, the GDP in Q3 showed zero growth compared to Q2 and did not meet the forecasts.
Next week, in addition to the above-mentioned reports from Australia, we expect the publication of the PMI indices in China, which may well cause a new wave of optimism and stimulate commodity assets to grow. Being at a maximum, the AUD may well update it next week, but growth will be limited. The Stochastic oscillator indicates the rates in the overbought zone and the probability of a price correction, but it is unlikely to occur next week. In this situation, we choose the deals to BUY, as do most technical analysis tools.
