The Suez Canal developments continue to dominate the financial markets today. It has been three days since a sizable container ship got stuck; so far all efforts to dislodge it and help it turn have failed. More teams are going to be dispatched today to help, but for the meantime, hundreds of other vessels remain locked on either side.
The new estimate is that it might take a week or two before the Suez Canal reopens again. In the meantime, supply issues (in both crude oil and other goods) are going to persist. Just a few days or weeks of the Suez Canal being closed will likely have months’ worth of economic consequences.
In terms of the economic calendar, today Germany revealed that its GfK consumer confidence index for April is -6.2, which is nearly twice better than the forecast. Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that there would not be a strict lockdown for Easter, going back on an earlier governmental decision.
Elsewhere in the EU, there is a European Council meeting and an ECB meeting (not a policy one). The coronavirus pandemic and the strained situation with the availability of vaccines is likely to be a central topic.
US President Joe Biden will also join the European Council meeting, which would be his first formal interaction with the EU since he became President of the United States.
Another reason why Biden would like to speak to the EU is China. The US has been critical of China’s treatment of its Muslim minority population, labeling it genocide. China, in turn, has not responded well to this criticism. Biden is likely looking for allies in this conflict.
Just before the meeting, the European Union announced that there will be no export restrictions over the AstraZeneca vaccine, after coming very close to a “vaccine-war” with the United Kingdom. The UK confirmed that the issue has been resolved for now and that it will cooperate with the bloc to ensure vaccine availability for both sides. Details about any vaccine deals between the EU and the UK are still not known.
The United States also has its own flood of reports today. First of all, the final growth rate of the GDP in the last quarter of 2020 is 4.3%, slightly higher than expected, but inflation remained below target for the same period. Jobless claims data was slightly better than anticipated, showing fewer people lost their jobs last week than forecasted.
President Joe Biden is expected to speak later today in yet another formal press conference.
US stock indices are set to do well today, in part thanks to the GDP and jobless claims data. The Nasdaq 100, in typical pandemic fashion, will make the biggest gains among major indices.
