USD/CHF quotes are an intense downward trend, which in just 2 months has brought quotes to record lows, and it would seem that the limit has already been reached, and a trend reversal is more likely than ever, but it is not clear how the USD will receive support next year. Maybe thanks to a new rally in the interest rate? - No. On the contrary, there is a high probability of a reduction in the rate. Maybe due to outstanding economic indicators? - No. With the exception of the military-industrial complex, it is unlikely that other areas of business feel comfortable. Perhaps due to increased exports and lower government debt? No. Next year we will once again have a borrowing cap that will have to be raised, and exports will not grow amid a slowdown in the global economy.
This week, the dollar was under pressure due to updated GDP data in the 3rd quarter. As it became known, GDP grew by only 4.9% against the forecast of 5.2%. The interest rate is unlikely to rise given the current inflation rate of 3.6%. The only thing that can have a positive impact on the value of the dollar is the Swiss franc itself and the monetary policy of the SNB, which, as you know, is not happy with the strengthening of its currency and may resort to foreign exchange interventions. In our opinion, this will be decisive next year. Following the Fed, other central banks will also resort to rate cuts so that their currencies do not strengthen too much. Thus, we can come to the conclusion that a trend reversal in favor of the USD is still possible through the efforts of the Swiss regulator.
Most technical analysis tools are unanimously committed to short trades. However, we can see that the Stochastic and RSI oscillators are in the oversold zone. Returning to our chart, we see that if the decline continues, it will be limited. Only in 2011, quotes were lower for several weeks, and then there was rapid growth and an upward trend. Be that as it may, we can count on at least a price correction, so today we are opening Buy trades, expecting to make our first profit in the new year, on the first trading days. You can do the same with SuperForex. This broker is ready to multiply your deposit for more deals and decrease risk for your funds. Join SuperForex now.
